Week ending 2026-06-12

The week stayed flat until Wednesday and turned on Thursday. From Monday to Wednesday the Perene Risk Index moved sideways in the 40-51 range and the ANIMA Index barely left 2 — locked sentiment, no traction. On Thursday the picture accelerated: the ANIMA Index jumped from 1.9 to 13.6 and closed Friday at 16.5, while the Perene Risk Index rose to 62 before settling at 60.8. Almost the entire week's inflection came in 48 hours. The defensive regime did not give way, but the backdrop went from inert to tensioned in a couple of sessions.

Sentiment

ANIMA Index from 3.2 to 16.5 on the week (+13.3), almost all the move concentrated in Thursday's turn. Perene Risk Index from 42.1 to 60.8 (+18.7). The two rise together, but started from a flat base — the jump is in speed, not in accumulated level.

Intermarket

The market kept abandoning cyclicals: Cyclical/Non-Cyclical at z −2.80, far from its averages. Utilities/IBOV at −2.53 and Financials/IBOV at −2.43 reinforce the defensive tilt. Financials was the only ratio to ease on the week (+0.26), still stretched to the downside.

What to watch in the week ahead

• Whether the ANIMA Index holds the 16 area or pulls back to the flat level of Monday through Wednesday.
• Whether Cyclical/Non-Cyclical at z −2.80 shows signs of normalization or sinks further.
• Whether the Perene Risk Index at 60.8 consolidates above 60 or gives back Thursday's jump.

Empirical distribution. Not a forecast._{Permanent seal — Radar Perene organizes probabilities; it does not manufacture certainties.}