Radar Perene / concept
Historical Analogs
What it is
Every market moment feels unique — until you look up when it already happened. That is what Historical Analogs do: they find windows from the past when the market looked the way it does today, and show what tended to follow.
The question they answer is simple: when we've seen a setup like today's, what happened in the weeks and months that followed?
The idea is an old one, often credited to Mark Twain: history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. An analog is resemblance, not a copy. That's why the result is never a single number — it's a range, the spread of what happened those other times.
How to read it
For each similar window, the Radar shows three things: when it happened, what followed inside it, and the range of outcomes across most cases.
An honest reading always carries what's different today. History rhymes, but it never repeats the whole stanza: the present may recall 2018 and 2016, say, yet today's fiscal picture is more stretched than it was back then — and that belongs in the reading.
What it does not mean
It is not a forecast. An analog is a distribution; a forecast is a point. We show what tended to happen, not what will happen — the difference is categorical.
And it is not cause. Similar windows don't say that what came next happened because of the regime, only that it happened in moments with that profile. The relationship is observed over time, never causal.
The limits
The memory begins in the year 2000. Earlier episodes enter as qualitative reference, not as points in the distribution.
And when nothing in the past truly resembles the present, the Radar says so: it would rather admit there is no analog than manufacture a weak comparison.
Analogs are not forecasts. They are distribution maps.
Related concepts: Brazil Regime · Vértice · see the full method
Frequently asked questions
What are Historical Analogs? They are windows from the past when the market had a profile similar to today's. What tended to follow appears as a range of outcomes — never as a forecast.
Is an analog the same as a forecast? No. An analog is a distribution; a forecast is a point. It shows what tended to happen in similar cases, not what will happen.
How far back does the Radar's memory go? It begins in the year 2000. Earlier episodes enter as qualitative reference, not as points in the distribution.
And when nothing in the past resembles today? The Radar says there is no analog. It would rather admit the absence than manufacture a weak comparison.