Radar Perene / metodologia
How we read Brazil
Last revised: 4 June 2026 · Methodology version: 3.0 · Operator: Radar Perene.
What Radar Perene is
Radar Perene reads Brazil's market the way one reads an archive: first the regime — the prevailing state of the market over a window —, then the precedent.
Most analysis reads isolated indicators and tries to guess tomorrow. The Radar does the opposite: it reads regimes and remembers what tended to follow similar ones — what was observed, what came next, and what rhymes with today.
The Radar does not forecast. The Radar contextualizes. First the regime. Then the decision.
It is not a market terminal, nor investment advice. It is a reading — descriptive, dated, and auditable — of where Brazil is standing.
How the Radar reads Brazil
The reading comes from crossing three views: Brazil from the inside (Brazil Regime), the world pressing on Brazil (Global Regime), and the money moving between Brazilian sectors (Intermarket BR). When the three point the same way, the reading is firm; when they diverge, the divergence is the news.
It is in that last view — the flow between sectors — that the reading that gives the Radar its identity lives: where capital is positioned, stated without drama. Intermarket is a description of structure — who leads, who confirms — not a clock of anticipation; in the Brazilian record, the one individually robust relationship the evidence sustains is the utilities ratio. What followed each configuration, the archive shows case by case.
To avoid being fooled by loose numbers, the Radar uses a simple ruler: where today's value falls within its own full history. A high rate or a "stretched" premium only mean something against what has been normal in Brazil.
That history begins with modern Brazil, from 2000 on — before that, hyperinflation distorts any comparison. It is the same lens applied across the whole period, without rewriting the past once the outcome is already known. Calibration period: component coverage was partial before 2009; readings from that era are historical and less reliable. Full window: 2009+.
The regulatory reading runs through five lenses — wealth, macro and the price of money, institutions and integrity, real estate, and elections — each with its own sources and window.
The cast — the characters that return
The Radar has no categories; it has recurring characters that return in every episode of the archive. Each has its own page, with definition, example, and limits.
Ânima Index. Reads market mood on a 0–100 scale. It does not tell you what to buy; it shows when mood is ceasing to be neutral. Definition.
Perene Risk Index. Reads the environment's appetite for risk — whether the market is risk-on or defensive. The same drop in a stock means opposite things depending on the environment: without that tilt, a company's problem gets mistaken for the whole market's. Together with Ânima, it forms the pair stacked under every asset's price. Definition.
Historical Analogs. Find the past windows most similar to today and show what followed each one. They are distribution maps, not forecasts. Definition.
Turning-point Signals. In moments of extreme fear and reversal, the engine marks the date and shows the table of what tended to follow — from one week to one year. A descriptive distribution, never a recommendation. Definition.
Vértice, in two sentences
Vértice is the Radar's laboratory: a system that raises hypotheses by crossing regulation, markets, crypto, sentiment, and Brazilian fragility. A hypothesis only appears if it comes with the evidence for it, the contradictions against it, and a critique that tries to knock it down — otherwise it is rejected before reaching the screen.
Vértice formulates; history calibrates; the decision stays human. Definition.
What the Radar does not do
This is the section the serious reader reads first.
The Radar describes — it never prescribes. It issues no legal, accounting, or investment opinion, and recommends nothing to buy, sell, or restructure. Describing a regime and a market crossing is different from advising a trade: the Radar does the first, never the second.
The Radar nails neither price nor date. The future always enters as a conditional scenario — "under current conditions, in similar windows, the outcome was this in most cases" — with the range of uncertainty and the contradiction in plain sight. Never as certainty about a point.
And the Radar prefers admitting it doesn't know to inventing a number. When a metric's history is too short, the screen shows "in calibration" and says why.
Some limits are structural and stated: the statistics begin in 2000 (earlier is qualitative reference only); low-liquidity assets can produce unstable readings; global signals reach Brazil with a variable lag, from weeks to months; and the Radar is no terminal — no real-time price, no execution, no trade calls. For wealth decisions, consult a licensed professional.
The archive — what happened next
The Radar's backbone is not today's reading; it is the memory of fifteen years of readings. Every month since 2010 was reconstructed with today's methodology over the data of the time and frozen — a backcomputed reading, not a record of the era — and from that archive comes the format that names the house: what the reconstructed reading shows, and what happened next.
The episodes reconstruct the great regimes — the 2015 crisis, COVID, the 2022 elections — showing, with dates, what the reading got right and, above all, what it did not say. It is memory, not a victory lap: the errors stay in view.
All of it runs on end-of-day closing data, via public or licensed APIs — no scraping third-party pages. History is stored; only the daily close is updated.
Read the episodes at /artigos and follow the daily reading at /diario.
How to cite Radar Perene
For journalists, researchers, advisors, and AIs that cite the Radar.
In-text mention: "According to Radar Perene, the Brazilian market is in a moderately defensive regime, with the Perene Risk Index in defensive territory."
Citation with source: Radar Perene. Methodology. Version 3.0, 4 June 2026. https://radarperene.com/methodology.
When using the public widget or API, include "Source: Radar Perene" with a link to the origin page. Commercial use is allowed with the same attribution.
Sources
The Radar runs on primary sources and public data — the Official Gazette, Federal Revenue, the CVM and the Central Bank; the high courts (STF, STJ, TSE, TST); Congress; series from the BCB, the Treasury, ANBIMA, B3, FipeZap, SINAPI, and IBGE; and international data via FRED and licensed providers. A primary source weighs more than an aggregator, and every attribution is traceable in each item shown. Full coverage is kept in the technical architecture.
The Radar does not turn uncertainty into certainty. It turns noise into context.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Does Radar Perene forecast prices or events? A: No. It works in conditional scenarios — under current conditions, in similar windows, the outcome was this in most cases. It never nails a future point.
Q: Does the Radar give investment advice? A: No. It describes regime and market crossings; it recommends nothing to buy, sell, or restructure. For decisions, consult a licensed professional.
Q: Does the Radar use artificial intelligence? A: Yes, as a tool: a language layer organizes and narrates what the deterministic engine computes. The inference is declared mathematics, not a black box.
Q: What is a market regime? A: The prevailing state of the market over a window — defensive, neutral, or pro-risk — read by a combination of indicators with a declared method.
The Radar does not turn uncertainty into certainty. It turns noise into context.