Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,002 · February 15, 2012 · reconstructed essentials

The risk reading moved to a different level. The day closes with the Perene Index at 95.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state95/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2011
    Ibovespa that day65,463 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months59,513 pts (-9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2006
    Ibovespa 45,383 → 55,932 pts (+23% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 29 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +7.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  2. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  3. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  4. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  5. December 31, 2001Perene 94
  6. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 65,368 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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