Matured Radar Perene readings vs. what the IBOV actually did 6 months later — an auditable track record. Descriptive, never a forecast.
Across 36 matured readings, the analog direction was confirmed 78% of the time (6-month horizon).
| Date | Month regime | Analog (6m) | IBOV outcome (6m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | neutral | +5% | +7.1% ✓ |
| 2025-10-31 | defensive | +4.5% | +21.7% ✓ |
| 2025-09-30 | defensive | +8% | +28.7% ✓ |
| 2025-08-31 | defensive | +7.2% | +27.9% ✓ |
| 2025-07-31 | defensive | +4.2% | +36.3% ✓ |
| 2025-06-30 | defensive | +2.8% | +15.9% ✓ |
| 2025-05-31 | defensive | +0.7% | +15.7% ✓ |
| 2025-04-30 | defensive | +0.7% | +8.8% ✓ |
| 2025-03-31 | defensive | -1.5% | +12.3% ✗ |
| 2025-02-28 | defensive | +5.5% | +14.3% ✓ |
| 2025-01-31 | defensive | +5.2% | +5.6% ✓ |
| 2024-12-31 | defensive | +4.5% | +16.1% ✓ |
| 2024-11-30 | defensive | +12.9% | +8.4% ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | defensive | +7.9% | +5.3% ✓ |
| 2024-09-30 | defensive | +7.8% | -3.5% ✗ |
| 2024-08-31 | defensive | +4.5% | -7.4% ✗ |
| 2024-07-31 | defensive | +6.6% | -1.2% ✗ |
| 2024-06-30 | defensive | +9.7% | -3.6% ✗ |
| 2024-05-31 | defensive | +7.2% | +4.6% ✓ |
| 2024-04-30 | neutral | +7.6% | +3.2% ✓ |
| 2024-03-31 | neutral | +19.4% | +4.7% ✓ |
| 2024-02-29 | neutral | +11.4% | +6.5% ✓ |
| 2024-01-31 | neutral | +10.5% | -0.3% ✗ |
| 2023-12-31 | neutral | +10.4% | -5.3% ✗ |
| 2023-11-30 | neutral | +6.4% | -4.6% ✗ |
| 2023-10-31 | defensive | +5.5% | +14.2% ✓ |
| 2023-09-30 | defensive | +2.3% | +12% ✓ |
| 2023-08-31 | defensive | +9% | +10.9% ✓ |
| 2023-07-31 | neutral | +3.7% | +5.4% ✓ |
| 2023-06-30 | defensive | +6.5% | +12.5% ✓ |
| 2023-05-31 | defensive | +1.9% | +17.5% ✓ |
| 2023-04-30 | defensive | +27.1% | +10.4% ✓ |
| 2023-03-31 | defensive | +1.5% | +12.9% ✓ |
| 2023-02-28 | defensive | +10.4% | +12.8% ✓ |
| 2023-01-31 | defensive | +14.6% | +6.2% ✓ |
| 2022-12-31 | defensive | +3.3% | +12.4% ✓ |
Distribution/outcome observed, never a forecast or recommendation. Each reading is frozen on its date; the outcome matures ~6 months later. All daily readings · Historical Analogs · Methodology