Radar Perene / articles
The encyclopedia of regimes
The Radar's archive read as an encyclopedia: what the reading registered at a moment of regime — and what the market did next. No forecast, no buy call. Only the extreme, with a date, and the honest verdict of what followed.
The marquees — the major regimes
- 2022 — the house in the darkThe house in the dark: the structure's floor at the end of 2022 preceded a year of discordIn December 2022, at the close of an election year, the entire market structure contracted in on itself.
- 2025The fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structureFor four months, the Brazilian equity market lived a split: a market mood pinned at extreme optimism while the structure beneath it described a defensive…
- 2018 — truckers and electionThe 2018 truckers' strike: money came back before faith — and before the headlineIn May 2018, the truckers' strike brought the country to a halt, on top of emerging-market stress and electoral uncertainty.
- 2011 — European crisisThe 2011 European crisis reached Brazil as discord, not collapseIn the second half of 2011, the European debt crisis shook the world.
- 2024Two clocks telling different times: December 2024December 2024 closed the year with the Radar's panel telling two incompatible stories.
- 2016 — the bottomThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before ratesIn March 2016, the market's relative prices flipped sign while the news flow was still grim.
- COVID — March 2020What happened after fear priced everythingIn March 2020, the Radar registered domestic mood at the absolute floor of the Ânima scale.
- 2015 — the three alarmsThe three alarms of August 2015 — and the bottom that wasn't the bottomIn August 2015, the Radar recorded something rare: all three of the house's alarms went off at once.
- 2013 — taper tantrumThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbedIn mid-2013, the Federal Reserve signaled it would scale back its stimulus, and emerging markets entered stress — the real lost ground along with them.
By regime family
2011 — European crisis
- MarqueeThe 2011 European crisis reached Brazil as discord, not collapse
- DerivativeConvergence on the optimistic side: May 2012, the clocks strike together
- DerivativeWhen the gauges disagree: high appetite, defensive structure
- Comparison2011 vs 2013: two imported shocks, two different absorptions
2013 — taper tantrum
- MarqueeThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbed
- DerivativeThe alarm that didn't cross the border: when the shock is external and the regime stays standing
- DerivativeWhen the shock only raises the price of money: the taper that became Selic, not crisis
- Comparison2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regime
2015 — the three alarms
- MarqueeThe three alarms of August 2015 — and the bottom that wasn't the bottom
- DerivativeThe Selic pinned at 14.25%: the rate that never came to the rescue
- DerivativeThe bottom that wasn't the bottom: when August's extreme still had a basement
- DerivativeWhen every haven fills up: the expensive shelter of November 2015
- ComparisonCrisis of 2015 × the 2016 bottom: what separates panic from inflection
2016 — the bottom
- MarqueeThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before rates
- DerivativeStructure leads mood: what 2016 taught about who arrives first
- DerivativeThe first rate cut: the Selic confirmed what the market had already read
- DerivativeWho bought while mood screamed: March 2016 and the turn no one announced
- ComparisonThe 2016 bottom × March 2020: two recompositions, two clocks
2018 — truckers and election
- MarqueeThe 2018 truckers' strike: money came back before faith — and before the headline
- DerivativeCapital before confidence: when flow came back and mood lagged behind (2018)
- DerivativeThe two clocks after the 2018 election: appetite at the top, structure at the floor (Dec 2018)
- Comparison2018 vs 2020: the same order — money, then faith — on different clocks
2022 — the house in the dark
- MarqueeThe house in the dark: the structure's floor at the end of 2022 preceded a year of discord
- EpisodeDecember in reverse, in thirty days
- EpisodeA year of discord: when mood and structure barely agreed
- Comparison2022 vs 2015: two slow domestic contractions
2024
- MarqueeTwo clocks telling different times: December 2024
- DerivativeThe currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024
- DerivativeReal rates in anomaly: the rare premium of late 2024
2025
- MarqueeThe fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structure
- DerivativeThe Selic at 15% and the fading euphoria
- DerivativeWhen the three axes agree on defense
COVID — March 2020
- MarqueeWhat happened after fear priced everything
- DerivativeThe April 2020 turn: cyclicals return to a table that held only defensives
- DerivativeWas March 2020 the bottom?
- DerivativeThe dollar never came back: when an extreme redefines the floor
- DerivativeHow long does it take for mood to catch up to flow?
- DerivativeWhen the three clocks aligned (November 2020)
- ComparisonCOVID × the 2022 election: the acute shock and the slow contraction
- ComparisonCOVID × August 2015: the same diagnosis, opposite anatomies
Browse by character
The thermometers and ratios that recur in every regime. Each character gathers the episodes in which it was the protagonist.
- Mood24 pages
- Flow (risk appetite)25 pages
- Structure (intermarket)34 pages
- Dollar17 pages
- Rates (Selic)18 pages
- Statistical anomaly5 pages
- Cyclicals × defensives14 pages
- Commodities5 pages
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