Radar Perene / Archive / episode

The month that undid two extremes — and crowned no one (Sep 2022)

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Episode

The extreme

There are months when the market builds a conviction. September 2022 did the opposite: it spent thirty days unwinding old excesses without signing off on any new one. The commodity that the prior month had exiled returned from banishment; the haven everyone was fighting over gave back half its premium. Both ends yielded to the center — and the center crowned no one.

In numbers: the Commodities/IBOV ratio left an exile the archive almost never records and made up much of the road back to the center — the largest move on the board. On the opposite side, the financial sector's premium shrank by half. The Ânima index cooled from 64.4 to 53.2, the intermarket grid eased from 45.18 to 42.59 (moderate risk-off), with the Selic at 13.75% and the dollar at R$ 5.24.

What happened next

The question September left open was answered — to the downside. In December 2022, the intermarket grid plunged to the floor of the scale, 0.17, in heavy risk-off, and the mood that had only cooled turned to pessimism: investor disposition fell to 30.4. In March 2023, the internal risk axis even jumped, but the composition hardened on the defensive, with Utilities and IFIX in the lead, while sentiment sank to 20.6. Only in September 2023 did mood and prices finally agree — both heading for shelter, with Utilities back in front.

What did not happen

The commodities' return was not a return to leadership: it was the exhaustion of a punishment, not a vote of confidence — three months later the whole house turned off the lights. Nor did the retreat in mood stall at neutral; it kept falling to 30.4, then to 20.6. And undoing extremes was not the same as calming: the symmetry September gave back preceded a deeper aversion, not a truce.

The honest verdict

The Radar read the month correctly — no side chosen. But "no side" is not equilibrium; it can be the pause before the fall. The neutralization of the excesses marked the end of August's distortion, not the beginning of a normalization. Anyone who read the symmetry as peace did not see the floor December was bringing.

Continue reading: The house in the dark (Dec 2022) · The rough start of 2023 (Mar 2023) · The shelter, not the applause (Sep 2023) →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket)