Radar Perene / articles

The encyclopedia of regimes

◦ Pieces dated up to 15 Jul 2026 were written under index methodology v1; the current series is v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The Radar's archive read as an encyclopedia: what the reading registered at a moment of regime — and what the market did next. No forecast, no buy call. Start from a collection, a regime phenomenon, or a character.

Start from a collection

• Marquees14 articles
• Episodes2 articles
• Comparisons8 articles
• Concepts11 articles
• Derivatives21 articles

Explore by regime phenomenon

• 2010 10
• 2011 — European crisis 13
• 2012 10
• 2013 — taper tantrum 12
• 2014 13
• 2015 — the three alarms 18
• 2016 — the bottom 16
• 2017 10
• 2018 — truckers and election 14
• 2019 10
• 2020 16
• 2021 10
• 2022 — the house in the dark 14
• 2023 10
• 2024 15
• 2025 9
• Capitulation 1
• COVID — March 2020 8
• Divergence 9
• Dollar 6
• Funds 5
• Global 1
• Mood & flow 6
• Intermarket 13
• Rates 6
• Macro 5
• Method 1
• Accountability 4
• Transversal concepts 11

Or by character

The thermometers and ratios that recur in every regime — each gathers the episodes in which it was the protagonist.

• Mood 51
• Flow (risk appetite) 52
• Structure (intermarket) 51
• Dollar 34
• Rates (Selic) 45
• Statistical anomaly 46
• Cyclicals × defensives 61
• Commodities 34
• Contracted income 1
• Method 2

Marquees 14

• 2014The single bet on banks: when the market chose a single sectorRebuild the scene from what the market did, not from what it said.
• 2022 — the house in the darkThe house in the dark: the structure's floor at the end of 2022 preceded a year of discordIn December 2022, at the close of an election year, the entire market structure contracted in on itself.
• 2017October 2017: mood nailed 69.2 while the structure collapsed to 8.2Confidence looked unshakeable. For the first time in months, domestic optimism found no counterweight — and it was precisely when it sang loudest that…
• 2014Euphoria at the top — March 2014, when appetite hit 100 and there was no follow-throughEuphoria seemed to have no ceiling — until it found the ceiling.
• 2025The fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structureFor four months, the Brazilian equity market lived a split: a market mood pinned at extreme optimism while the structure beneath it described a defensive…
• 2018 — truckers and electionThe 2018 truckers' strike: money came back before faith — and before the headlineIn May 2018, the truckers' strike brought the country to a halt, on top of emerging-market stress and electoral uncertainty.
• 2011 — European crisisThe 2011 European crisis reached Brazil as discord, not collapseIn the second half of 2011, the European debt crisis shook the world.
• 2024Two clocks telling different times: December 2024December 2024 closed the year with the Radar's panel telling two incompatible stories.
• 2016 — the bottomThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before ratesIn March 2016, the market's relative prices flipped sign while the news flow was still grim.
• 2021September 2021: Brazilian mood collapsed from 43.8 to 9.4 — and capital ran for cover at homeDomestic mood did not just give way — it caved in.
• COVID — March 2020What happened after fear priced everythingIn March 2020, the Radar registered domestic mood at the absolute floor of the Ânima scale.
• 2015 — the three alarmsThe three alarms of August 2015 — and the bottom that wasn't the bottomIn August 2015, the Radar recorded something rare: all three of the house's alarms went off at once.
• 2010When credit lost faith first — May 2010The money that lends was the first to grow suspicious.
• 2013 — taper tantrumThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbedIn mid-2013, the Federal Reserve signaled it would scale back its stimulus, and emerging markets entered stress — the real lost ground along with them.

Episodes 2

• 2022 — the house in the darkDecember in reverse, in thirty daysDecember 2022 closed the year with the entire structure shrunk: the intermarket at the absolute floor of the scale, the investor downcast, the regime in hard…
• 2022 — the house in the darkA year of discord: when mood and structure barely agreedAfter December 2022 left the structure at the floor of the scale, 2023 should have been the year of reconciliation between what the investor feels and where…

Comparisons 8

• 2011 — European crisis2011 vs 2013: two imported shocks, two different absorptionsTwo external shocks, two years running early in the decade.
• 2013 — taper tantrum2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regimeThere are episodes in which the currency stops being a supporting act and starts commanding the reading.
• 2018 — truckers and election2018 vs 2020: the same order — money, then faith — on different clocksThe 2018 truckers' strike and COVID in 2020 are two shocks of different natures that left the same trail in the archive: capital came back before confidence…
• 2022 — the house in the dark2022 vs 2015: two slow domestic contractionsThe end of 2022 and the year 2015 were, in the Radar's archive, two markets that contracted from inside the house — not from a scare arriving from outside.
• COVID — March 2020COVID × the 2022 election: the acute shock and the slow contractionMarch 2020 and December 2022 were two moments when the Radar registered the Brazilian market contracted and on the defensive.
• COVID — March 2020COVID × August 2015: the same diagnosis, opposite anatomiesAugust 2015 and March 2020 are the two biggest shocks of the recent archive.
• 2015 — the three alarmsCrisis of 2015 × the 2016 bottom: what separates panic from inflectionAugust 2015 and March 2016 are two portraits of the same crisis — and both carry an axis at the extreme.
• 2016 — the bottomThe 2016 bottom × March 2020: two recompositions, two clocksThese are two recompositions coming out of a bottom, and the archive reads them with the same vocabulary.

Concepts 11

• Transversal conceptsWhat is market breadth?There are two questions hidden in every trading session, and the index answers only the first.
• Transversal conceptsWhat is a statistical anomaly?In the Radar, a statistical anomaly is a move so far out of the ordinary that the engine singles it out as unlikely to be mere noise — a reading far from the…
• Transversal conceptsCyclicals vs defensives: the duel that reveals appetiteInside the stock market, two groups tell opposite stories.
• Transversal conceptsCommodities in real: when the currency moves the ratioMuch of the commodity complex is quoted in dollars.
• Transversal conceptsThe dollar as regime gaugeIn the Radar, the dollar is not just a price — it is one of the most sensitive gauges of the regime.
• Transversal conceptsWhat is the Ânima Index?The Ânima Index is the Radar Perene mood thermometer: a measure, from 0 to 100, of the state of spirit of the domestic investor.
• Transversal conceptsWhat is the Perene Risk Index?The Perene Risk Index is the Radar's appetite thermometer: a measure, from 0 to 100, of how willing domestic capital is to carry risk.
• Transversal conceptsWhat is the intermarket reading?The intermarket reading is how the Radar reads the structure of the market from the inside: the ratios between classes and sectors — cyclical stocks against…
• Transversal conceptsChanging level is not changing regimeThe most common mistake in reading markets arrives dressed as good news: a thermometer jumps, and the temptation is to announce that the weather has turned…
• Transversal conceptsWhat is contracted income?In the Radar's vocabulary, contracted income is the block of assets whose revenue does not depend on the mood of the cycle — it has already been signed.
• Transversal conceptsRates (the Selic) in the Radar: the backdrop of the regimesThe Selic is Brazil's benchmark interest rate — and, in the Radar's archive, it works as the slow backdrop against which the regimes take shape.

Derivatives 21

• 2011 — European crisisConvergence on the optimistic side: May 2012, the clocks strike togetherFor three months the house's two thermometers pointed in opposite directions: domestic confidence insisting on assumed risk, the intermarket structure…
• 2016 — the bottomStructure leads mood: what 2016 taught about who arrives firstIn March 2016 the structure of the market's relative prices turned first.
• 2025The Selic at 15% and the fading euphoriaAll of the 2025 fever played out against the same backdrop: domestic rates at the top of the cycle.
• 2015 — the three alarmsThe Selic pinned at 14.25%: the rate that never came to the rescueThrough the 2015 crisis, the base rate did not budge.
• COVID — March 2020The April 2020 turn: cyclicals return to a table that held only defensivesAfter the March panic, April 2020 brought the first sign of a turn — but in only one place.
• 2018 — truckers and electionCapital before confidence: when flow came back and mood lagged behind (2018)In June 2018, right after the shock of the strike, the Radar recorded a rare divergence between the two sides of the same portrait.
• COVID — March 2020Was March 2020 the bottom?In hindsight, it is tempting to call March 2020 the bottom of the pandemic.
• 2013 — taper tantrumThe alarm that didn't cross the border: when the shock is external and the regime stays standingIn September 2013, the stress coming from abroad reached the domestic readings as a loosening, not as panic.
• 2024The currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024At the end of 2024, the dollar stopped being a backdrop and started commanding the equity market from within.
• COVID — March 2020The dollar never came back: when an extreme redefines the floorIn March 2020, at the height of the panic, the dollar closed at R$ 4.88 and the Radar's engine flagged it as a statistical anomaly — a move too rare to be…
• 2015 — the three alarmsThe bottom that wasn't the bottom: when August's extreme still had a basementIn August 2015, the Perene Risk Index closed at 0.0 — the absolute floor of the scale.
• 2016 — the bottomThe first rate cut: the Selic confirmed what the market had already readThrough the whole 2016 bottom, the cost of money did not move.
• 2018 — truckers and electionThe two clocks after the 2018 election: appetite at the top, structure at the floor (Dec 2018)December 2018 arrived with the election already decided and tempers, in theory, clarified.
• 2024Real rates in anomaly: the rare premium of late 2024At the end of 2024, the Radar recorded in market real rates one of the rarest premiums in the entire archive.
• 2013 — taper tantrumWhen the shock only raises the price of money: the taper that became Selic, not crisisIn September 2013, with emerging markets in stress and the real pressured by the Federal Reserve's signal, the natural question was where the shock would…
• 2011 — European crisisWhen the gauges disagree: high appetite, defensive structureThe house has two thermometers that usually agree.
• 2025When the three axes agree on defenseThe Radar reads the same market through three windows: surface mood, risk appetite, and the intermarket structure beneath the prices.
• 2015 — the three alarmsWhen every haven fills up: the expensive shelter of November 2015In November 2015, capital inside the market stopped debating the intensity of fear and began debating its internal geography.
• COVID — March 2020How long does it take for mood to catch up to flow?One regularity shows up in nearly every episode of the archive: capital moves before confidence.
• 2016 — the bottomWho bought while mood screamed: March 2016 and the turn no one announcedIn March 2016 the news flow was still grim, but inside the market capital made a rare gesture.
• COVID — March 2020When the three clocks aligned (November 2020)For almost the entire pandemic year, the Radar's three thermometers disagreed: risk appetite was recovering, mood stayed on the floor, the intermarket…

By regime phenomenon

2010

• MarqueeWhen credit lost faith first — May 2010
• episodioThe commodity that rose and fell in the same month — Apr 2010
• episodioThe party that changed its guests — the silent collapse of commodities in June 2010
• episodioThe lead the currency lent to commodities — October 2010
• episodioThe average said 78.7; the margin said 6.4 — April 2010
• episodioThe banks' premium stretched to an extreme — and the year-long descent
• episodioThe appetite with no fixed address — October 2010 and the leadership that changed houses every month
• episodioThe money comes back in through the banks — and the door shuts within a quarter
• episodioThe cyclicals' stretch of July 2010 — the position too expensive to last
• episodioThe end of 2010: the gauge at 100, the lenders heading out

2011 — European crisis

• MarqueeThe 2011 European crisis reached Brazil as discord, not collapse
• DerivativeConvergence on the optimistic side: May 2012, the clocks strike together
• episodioThe trail the currency left — September 2011
• episodioThe discharge from the ward that never came — the banks of June 2011
• episodioThe shelter that charged dearly — and the year it took to empty out
• episodioThe alarm that came from the price of money, not from fear — Jan 2011
• episodioThe appetite that chose rent — April 2011
• episodioThe extreme that changed address — the commodities of 2011
• episodioThe imported downgrade of August 2011 — the strength that was only the currency
• episodioThe month without a leader — when the index swallows the hierarchy
• episodioThe two clocks begin to disagree — May 2011
• DerivativeWhen the gauges disagree: high appetite, defensive structure
• Comparison2011 vs 2013: two imported shocks, two different absorptions

2012

• episodioThe 58-point swing of December 2012 — the appetite that came back too fast
• episodioThe shelter with a currency accent — June 2012
• episodioThe capital that slept with a helmet on — the utilities trench of March 2012
• episodioThe deposit that never took root — October 2012
• episodioThe money pulls its chips: the pullback that took cyclicals off the table for a year
• episodioThe stimulus that didn't thrill — the rate at its floor and the month that refused the drama (Sep/2012)
• episodioThe retreat into concrete — confidence read 97, the money was already running
• episodioThe defensives lose their tenants — and win them back in three months
• episodioWhen fear learned to yield — Apr 2012
• episodioWhen the two clocks finally strike together — and the agreement lasted a quarter

2013 — taper tantrum

• MarqueeThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbed
• episodioThe bet that fits in a single sector — banks, Feb/2013
• episodioThe commodity that only pays in reais — when the gain was the currency (May 2013)
• episodioFixed income in disguise loses its charm — Aug. 2013, the Selic at 9%
• DerivativeThe alarm that didn't cross the border: when the shock is external and the regime stays standing
• episodioJune 2013: the street and the market were reading different countries
• episodioRates at the floor, cyclicals at the bottom — January 2013
• episodioThe optimism that applauded alone — the 29-point jump of October 2013
• episodioThe thirty days that undid three months — the banking lead of April 2013
• episodioWhen fear stopped paying rent — bricks on the floor, confidence at the top
• DerivativeWhen the shock only raises the price of money: the taper that became Selic, not crisis
• Comparison2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regime

2014

• MarqueeThe single bet on banks: when the market chose a single sector
• MarqueeEuphoria at the top — March 2014, when appetite hit 100 and there was no follow-through
• episodioThe single bet on banks — and the extreme that did not hold
• episodioAppetite returns the favor to the forgotten of the balance sheet — Jun 2014
• episodioThe appetite that collapsed without a scare — September 2014
• aniversarioFrom 100.0 to 0.0 — and the road back that stopped halfway
• episodioThe cycle split in half: April 2014 and the end of buying blind
• episodioThe dominance that was forgotten, not toppled — Dec 2014
• episodioThe end of the commodities' reign — the crown fell in a single month, and the throne never came back
• episodioThe 50-point retreat that opened a year of jolts — January 2014
• episodioThe refuge that lasted a month — the defensive's rare tumble in Jul 2014
• episodioThe return of the poor relatives of February 2014 — the end of a punishment, not the start of a reign
• episodioThe lonely conviction of May 2014 — a rare bet over lukewarm appetite

2015 — the three alarms

• MarqueeThe three alarms of August 2015 — and the bottom that wasn't the bottom
• episodioSeptember 2015: the risk index caught its breath, the banks did not
• episodioThe calm that depended on silence — January 2015 and the mood that collapsed all at once
• episodioThe courage that only bought shelters — July 2015
• episodioThe retreat with no destination of June 2015 — the capital that emptied the shelter without going back into the rain
• DerivativeThe Selic pinned at 14.25%: the rate that never came to the rescue
• aniversarioTen years of the 2015 crisis: the zero that was not the end
• episodioThe safe dressed as a commodity — July 2015
• episodioThe fifty-point leap that lied — December 2015
• DerivativeThe bottom that wasn't the bottom: when August's extreme still had a basement
• episodioThe gesture precedes the words — the silent defense of March 2015
• episodioThe commodity premium the dollar was paying
• episodioThe brick's premium that came undone — and re-formed before winter
• episodioThe first alarm rang without a sound — May 2015
• DerivativeWhen every haven fills up: the expensive shelter of November 2015
• notaPublic debt in a rare anomaly — the silent alarm of August 2015
• ComparisonCrisis of 2015 × the 2016 bottom: what separates panic from inflection
• comparacaoSelic at 14.25% and 3.75%: the rate that did not rule the mood

2016 — the bottom

• MarqueeThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before rates
• episodioThe calm that hid an extreme — cyclicals stretched as never before, Jul/2016
• DerivativeStructure leads mood: what 2016 taught about who arrives first
• episodioThe alarm the structure did not validate — Sep 2016
• episodioAppetite chooses whom to trust — the banks' +2.13 in October 2016
• episodioThe rally on a single pillar — November 2016
• episodioMood was smiling, the money had already changed shelter — May 2016
• episodioThe address of fear: predictability's record premium — Jan 2016
• DerivativeThe first rate cut: the Selic confirmed what the market had already read
• episodioThe fist that loosened without opening — February 2016
• episodioThe commodity jump that was the currency — April 2016
• DerivativeWho bought while mood screamed: March 2016 and the turn no one announced
• notaThe thaw that stopped at the surface — the intermarket at 50.1 in August 2016
• notaThe banks' leap that measured fear, not profit
• ComparisonThe 2016 bottom × March 2020: two recompositions, two clocks
• comparacaoTwo floors, opposite directions — 2016 and 2022 read on the same axis

2017

• MarqueeOctober 2017: mood nailed 69.2 while the structure collapsed to 8.2
• episodioThe financials leave the table in November 2017 — and the command that never settled
• episodioThe shelter sold at the bottom of fear — April 2017
• episodioThe baton that returned to commodities — September 2017
• episodioCapital changes neighborhoods — August 2017 and the eviction of rent
• episodioThe shock of May 2017 — risk collapsed from 49 to 7, and mood chose to breathe
• episodioOptimism at the top of the scale — and the ballast that was missing (Dec 2017)
• episodioMood moves in leaps, capital in steps — July 2017
• episodioFalling rates call real estate back — and dismiss it months later
• episodioWhen everything agrees — January 2017 and the consensus that didn't last a quarter

2018 — truckers and election

• MarqueeThe 2018 truckers' strike: money came back before faith — and before the headline
• episodioThe chair that changed hands — and the exile that lasted, Jan 2018
• DerivativeCapital before confidence: when flow came back and mood lagged behind (2018)
• episodioThe cycle and the banks at the edge of the scale — when capital ran ahead of confidence
• episodioThe start of 2018 in confidence — and the defensives that vanished off the map
• episodioJuly's meeting — when the money stopped running and confidence caught up (Jul/2018)
• episodioThe extreme that eases without turning — when the wallet votes against the mouth (Nov 2018)
• episodioThe flow collapsed to 5.4; the structure barely blinked — February 2018
• episodioThe weight changes tenants — August 2018 and the swap under the same roof
• episodioThe only voice afraid — the dollar above R$ 4,10 in September 2018
• DerivativeThe two clocks after the 2018 election: appetite at the top, structure at the floor (Dec 2018)
• episodioWhen the currency dictates the harvest: the rare leap the exchange rate wrote
• Comparison2018 vs 2020: the same order — money, then faith — on different clocks
• comparacaoÂnima × Perene Risk: eighty points between capital and mood

2019

• episodioThe recovery that leaked underneath — April 2019
• episodioThe mood came back, but the money left the room — September 2019
• episodioThe money decided before conviction — May 2019
• episodioRates at the floor, capital in the cellar — October 2019
• episodioThe fear of a single room — March 2019
• episodioMid-2019 — when falling rates turned their back on brick
• episodioThe optimism that led from shelter — Jan 2019
• episodioThe panic the capital didn't buy — August 2019
• episodioThe rally on the eve of the storm — December 2019 and the −16.6% bill
• episodioThe costly thermometer moved first — November 2019's 35 points

2020

• episodioThe rift between the two thermometers — October 2020
• episodioThe inflation that had not yet reached the table — the IGP-M surge of September 2020
• aniversarioFive years since the COVID crash: the year price came back before confidence
• episodioWhen mood caught up with money — July 2020
• episodioCapital came back buying shelter — May 2020
• episodioFlow at the ceiling, mood at the floor — June 2020
• episodioThe leader yields the microphone — the rotation hidden at the top of December 2020
• notaThe Selic at 3.75% at the peak of fear — when the lowest rate brings no relief
• notaThe three speeds of deterioration — mood at 2.6, structure still at 56.8
• notaFinancials/IBOV sinks in a single month — the mark of credit fear
• notaAt the top of the scale: the month defense was already priced in — February 2020
• notaThe dollar at R$4.88 and the ruler that measures distance, not direction
• notaThe leap that wasn't strength: the IFIX/IBOV ratio as a fear gauge
• notaThe ratio that rises with no buyer — March 2020
• comparacaoCyclicals and defensives: who leads when fear is total — and when sentiment screams
• comparacaoIFIX vs. IBOV: when bricks only rise because paper collapses

2021

• MarqueeSeptember 2021: Brazilian mood collapsed from 43.8 to 9.4 — and capital ran for cover at home
• episodioThe cyclical bet at the bottom of the series — August 2021
• episodioThe euphoria that switched chairs — May 2021
• episodioThe room the enthusiasm chose — April 2021
• episodioThe middle of 2021 — the step that looked like a plateau
• episodioThe first tightening of 2021 — appetite at 94 and conviction stuck at 50
• episodioThe ceiling did not move; the tenants did — October 2021
• episodioThe two deltas that looked like a turn — November 2021
• episodioThe market that sold the banks to buy the barrel — February 2021
• notaThe refuge premium: utilities only pay when growth is called into question

2022 — the house in the dark

• MarqueeThe house in the dark: the structure's floor at the end of 2022 preceded a year of discord
• episodioThe leadership no one celebrated — the mirrored rotation of November 2022
• episodioThe three theses that paid together — and the chorus that was a relay (Feb 2022)
• aniversarioFrom panic to the house in the dark: the fear that changed faces from 2020 to 2022
• episodioThe floor that rearranged its furniture — April 2022
• episodioThree expensive shelters at once — and the map that went dark (June 2022)
• episodioThe commodity shock that came through the currency — March 2022
• EpisodeDecember in reverse, in thirty days
• episodioThe month that undid two extremes — and crowned no one (Sep 2022)
• episodioThe optimism that lit itself — August 2022
• episodioThe optimism the world never signed — January 2022
• episodioThe breath from within that the structure would not endorse — Jul 2022
• EpisodeA year of discord: when mood and structure barely agreed
• Comparison2022 vs 2015: two slow domestic contractions

2023

• episodioThe celebration the prices never signed — June 2023
• episodioThe shelter the money wouldn't let go of — September 2023
• episodioThe solitary toast of July 2023 — optimism strikes 84.4, the structure pulls back
• episodioCapital changes its clothes, not its house — October 2023
• episodioThe shelter no one vacated for a year — March 2023
• episodioThe awakening that left commodities behind
• episodioThe mood cooled; the appetite evaporated — August 2023
• episodioThe rate at the ceiling, and the money that chose to wait
• episodioThe fear the prices didn't buy — February 2023
• episodioThe telegram the mood did not read — April 2023

2024

• MarqueeTwo clocks telling different times: December 2024
• episodioThe stampede that emptied its own shelter — April 2024
• episodioThe mood that came back without faith — August 2024
• episodioBuying iron ore was fleeing the economy, not betting on it
• DerivativeThe currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024
• episodioThe month capital bought predictability — July 2024
• episodioThe defensive stretched as almost never before — and the excess that gave way
• episodioThe fear the money didn't buy
• episodioThe ebbing tide of September 2024 — and the boats that came back too soon
• episodioThe retreat that was not yet a flight — January 2024
• episodioThe banks leave the seat of honor — and the succession never came
• episodioThe banks leave the stage, with no heir — the exit that became a year-long decline
• DerivativeReal rates in anomaly: the rare premium of late 2024
• notaThe dollar at R$ 6,097 and what an anomaly means
• comparacaoTwo nearly identical peaks — and why neither was strength

2025

• MarqueeThe fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structure
• episodioThe capitulation in Financials — May 2025
• episodioThe party that rewarded its own squeeze — January 2025
• episodioThe weakness that switched shoulders beneath the euphoria of 92
• DerivativeThe Selic at 15% and the fading euphoria
• episodioApril 2025 under tariffs — appetite screamed, money left in good order
• episodioThe silent adversary — August 2025, when fixed income won without attacking
• episodioThe thermometer rises, the skeleton stays still — March 2025
• DerivativeWhen the three axes agree on defense

Capitulation

• episodioCheap and profitable. And abandoned.

COVID — March 2020

• MarqueeWhat happened after fear priced everything
• DerivativeThe April 2020 turn: cyclicals return to a table that held only defensives
• DerivativeWas March 2020 the bottom?
• DerivativeThe dollar never came back: when an extreme redefines the floor
• DerivativeHow long does it take for mood to catch up to flow?
• DerivativeWhen the three clocks aligned (November 2020)
• ComparisonCOVID × the 2022 election: the acute shock and the slow contraction
• ComparisonCOVID × August 2015: the same diagnosis, opposite anatomies

Divergence

• comparacaoEuphoria at its peak. The breach, too.
• comparacaoTwo winters, the same mismatch — never the same clocks
• comparacaoThe disagreement repeats. The outcome, never the same.
• comparacaoThe more the mood rises, the shorter the rope
• comparacaoFear hit bottom. The structure was already rising.
• comparacaoThe basement went and came back. The roof never noticed.
• comparacaoThe thermometer ran ahead. Then it fell behind.
• comparacaoThe disagreement protected. The agreement did not.
• comparacaoThe disagreement said everything. The agreement, almost nothing.

Dollar

• episodioThe shelter that didn't pick a port
• comparacaoThe world was buying the Brazil the locals were selling
• comparacaoThe commodity climbed to the top. No one bought it.
• comparacaoThe exchange rate wrote both months. Fear, only one.
• comparacaoThe rise made headlines. The return did not.
• comparacaoThe exchange rate changes the price of everything. Not the question.

Funds

• episodioCheap on multiples, stretched on risk
• episodioThree months for the market to choose again
• comparacaoHow a bottom is recognized: by what it does not shout
• comparacaoTwo houses in the same dark. Only one was breathing.
• comparacaoThe bottom is not where fear screams — it is where the floor stops giving way

Global

• episodioThe aversion with no foreign accent

Mood & flow

• episodioThe day mood nearly touched zero
• episodioThree readers, three books
• episodioOne axis stood still. The other went, came back, and doubled.
• comparacaoWhen the drop is in the mood — and when it is in the capital
• comparacaoThe rate was always the suspect. Two Junes acquitted it.
• comparacaoOne year later, the house swapped its floors

Intermarket

• episodioThe only ratio that was improving
• episodioThe basket that wasn't a basket
• episodioThe extreme that unwound in a week
• episodioThe month the market chose income over cycle
• comparacaoA sector capitulates. Or is it the ruler that trembles.
• comparacaoThe house bets on itself. The world won't co-sign.
• comparacaoThe direction reversed. The gear did not.
• comparacaoThe same sector bled twice. The mood noticed neither.
• comparacaoThe index's anchor is what sinks deepest.
• comparacaoThe brick didn't lose. It was swallowed.
• comparacaoCommodities at the top. The ore, standing still.
• comparacaoAppetite returned. Conviction did not.
• comparacaoThe solitary fall has a culprit. The broad one does not.

Rates

• episodioThe Selic came down a step. The house didn't feel it.
• comparacaoMoney has never been so expensive. The mood, never so high.
• comparacaoRates rose to the ceiling. The mood, higher still.
• comparacaoThe tightening came with euphoria. The relief, in silence.
• comparacaoThe carry stopped competing. It began to pull.
• comparacaoThe same rate presided over the panic and the appetite

Macro

• episodioThe week brick paid the index
• episodioWholesale shouted before retail
• episodioThe barrel gave way. Wholesale didn't.
• comparacaoInflation was the anomaly. Months later, so was deflation.
• comparacaoThe anomaly that flipped its sign

Method

• conceitoWhen precedents disagree

Accountability

• episodioThe extreme number that wasn't news
• episodioThe question April left behind
• episodioThe month that broke the yardstick
• episodioThe verdict that never came

Transversal concepts

• ConceptWhat is market breadth?
• ConceptWhat is a statistical anomaly?
• ConceptCyclicals vs defensives: the duel that reveals appetite
• ConceptCommodities in real: when the currency moves the ratio
• ConceptThe dollar as regime gauge
• ConceptWhat is the Ânima Index?
• ConceptWhat is the Perene Risk Index?
• ConceptWhat is the intermarket reading?
• ConceptChanging level is not changing regime
• ConceptWhat is contracted income?
• ConceptRates (the Selic) in the Radar: the backdrop of the regimes

The Radar reads these regimes every day. See today's reading → · How the method works →