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April 2025 under tariffs — appetite screamed, money left in good order

Episode

On the surface, the party was still at its peak. The Brazilian stock market's risk appetite was not just high — it was climbing, deep in the territory of those who want to buy. But anyone watching where the money actually went would have seen a different scene: in raw materials, it was bleeding. The backdrop was tension over trade and tariffs, and the commodity complex is the first to feel it when global appetite for physical goods cools.

The extreme

The clearest signal of the month was the ratio that ties the market to the physical world. Raw-material stocks — iron ore, pulp, oil, protein — collapsed against the index, and the money ran toward contracted revenue: power, sanitation, concessions. There was no stampede. There was an orderly retreat, in formation, from everything that depends on commodities to make money. In numbers: the Commodities/IBOV ratio went from z −1.34 to −2.69 — the largest move on the grid — while Utilities/IBOV climbed to +2.62 and the intermarket pulled back from 43.37 to 32.62, in a moderate risk-off. Mood stayed locked in extreme optimism, 77.5, and risk appetite pinned 91.0.

What happened next

The disagreement — appetite screaming buy, structure slipping out quietly — did not last. Three months later, in July 2025, it resolved, but not on the side optimism expected: it was the euphoria that collapsed to meet the structure. Mood fell from 92.3 to 39.0, appetite from 76.4 to 17.5. The fever broke; the illness did not. In October 2025, six months later, both axes deflated to neutral and commodities stopped falling against the index (from z −1.34 to −0.37). And the six-month verdict for April itself was a Hit: the market returned +8.8%, within the central band of the distribution.

What did not happen

The break to −2.69 did not announce a crash. There was no collapse, no thunderclap — only the drip of those trading risk for predictable revenue. Nor was appetite at 91.0 rewarded: the divergence resolved through the fall of enthusiasm, not the victory of risk. And, despite all the defensive reading the structure was registering, the market rose +8.8% over the half-year. Neither the euphoric side nor the structural one won cleanly.

The honest verdict

The orderly flight from commodities read the regime: it foretold the reconciliation from below that arrived in July. But an extreme in a ratio is not a trigger for collapse, and a return of +8.8% is a reminder that reading where the money flees is not the same as predicting the price.

Continue reading: The fever of 2025 · Commodities in real terms · The Selic at 15% and the euphoria that yields →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket) · Flow (risk appetite) · Mood · Dollar