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Two peaks at three deviations — and why neither was strength

Article

The extreme

There is a place at the top of the intermarket grid that lights up in the months of fear — and it almost never means what it seems to. In November 2024 and in March 2020, the most extreme point of the row marked practically the same deviation, for opposite reasons. In numbers: in November 2024, the Commodities (R$)/IBOV ratio jumped to z +3.07, the sharpest deviation in the entire grid, pushed by a dollar at R$ 5.81 — not by the raw material, which measured in dollars barely moved (z -0.78). In March 2020, that same Commodities/IBOV climbed to z +3.09 and IFIX/IBOV to +4.16, but because the index was falling faster than its denominators. Two nearly identical peaks, two different machines. Behind the 2024 one, the same defensive reflex: Utilities firm in shelter territory (z +1.03), what pays without asking for faith in the country.

What happened next

What separated the two months was not the peak, but the rest of the board. In March 2020, the deterioration came in three speeds: mood scraped the floor (Ânima 2.6), the intermarket slid into moderate risk-off (38.87), but the broad structure still marked risk-on at 56.8 — a lag the engine admitted it could not classify with confidence. In November 2024 there was no lag: mood at the bottom (Ânima 14.0), appetite crossing into risk_off (Perene Risk 22.6), defensive domestic regime (27.9). The 2020 extreme was a scare still propagating; the 2024 one, a fear already settled into every axis.

What did not happen

Neither of the two peaks was a sign of strength. Anyone who read the commodities jump as enthusiasm — in either month — read it wrong. In 2020 it was not buying of raw material: it was the IBOV falling faster than everything, with Finance/IBOV at z -1.91, banks discarded under the fear that the scare would turn into a credit problem. In 2024 it was not the ton of ore: it was the real at R$ 5.81 repricing export revenue without the price rising a single cent, while Finance/IBOV sank to z -2.24. The identical number at the top hid opposite mechanics — one a currency move, the other a denominator move.

The honest verdict

The same +3σ can lie in two ways. In March 2020, the peak was an artifact of an index in collapse; in November 2024, a symptom of a weak currency. In both, the highest point of the grid was where money was hiding, not where it was betting. Reading the relative extreme as leadership — and not as flight — would have inverted the signal both times.

Continue reading: Commodities in real terms — the vault the exchange rate fills · March 2020 was the bottom · The dollar as a regime thermometer →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket) · Flow (risk appetite) · Dollar · Cyclicals × defensives