Rates (the Selic) in the Radar: the backdrop of the regimes

Concept

The Selic is Brazil's benchmark interest rate — and, in the Radar's archive, it works as the slow backdrop against which the regimes take shape. It does not change every day; when it does, it usually takes time to appear in the market thermometers.

How to read it. A high rate makes risk more expensive and rewards what yields without depending on the economy; a low rate pushes capital toward risk. But the Selic is the most lagging thermometer: the market usually turns months before the rate cycle follows.

Why it matters. Many inflections in the archive happened with the Selic still parked — the structure and appetite changed first, and the cut (or the hike) only came later, confirming what the market was already reading.

What it is not. It is not a trade trigger. "Rates are going to fall" is not a Radar forecast; what the archive records is the order in which things usually happen — market first, rate later.

Related episodes: The three alarms of 2015 (Selic pinned at the height of fear) · The 2016 bottom (the cut came a year later) · The 2013 taper (rates rose to defend the real) →

Characters: Rates (Selic)