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The address of fear: predictability's record premium — Jan 2016

Episode

The extreme

Fear, when it is complete, stops looking for the exit and starts looking for an address. In the first month of 2016, domestic capital did not flee the country — it locked itself inside the only kind of revenue that arrives whether or not the economy turns: power and water utilities, the predictable. And it paid for that the largest premium the series had ever seen. In numbers: the Utilities/IBOV ratio reached 3.28 of deviation, breaking through the 2.64 ceiling that November had seemed to nail down. The intermarket system gave back in a single month almost all of December's truce — from 65.25 to 13.07 — and the dollar closed at R$4.0524, the first monthly close above four reais. The Selic still stood at 14.25% a year.

What happened next

The shelter began to empty out in the reverse order it had filled. Three months later, in April 2016, the intermarket returned to neutral ground (54.37), commodities crossed to the positive side (from -0.85 to +0.24 of deviation), and Utilities/IBOV itself retreated to 1.12. By July the domestic cycle was already leading comfortably — Cyclical/Non-Cyclical at +2.87 of deviation — and the dollar eased to R$3.2756. A year later, January 2017 closed in strong risk-on, with the Selic in its first cut, at 13.0%, and the dollar at R$3.1966.

What did not happen

The peak of the refuge did not signal further declines. This time, the month of maximum fear sat near the bottom of the cycle — the opposite of what August 2015 had taught, when the floor of an indicator was not the floor. But the turn was no leap: it took a full year, and in April the domestic reading still marked defense. Nor did the dollar above R$4 become a plateau; it deflated. And nothing structural broke in January — the market swung fifty points of mood without anything changing underneath.

The honest verdict

The record premium for predictability marked the highest point of fear — but the series does not announce that in the moment. Reading 3.28 of deviation as "there is nowhere worse to go" would have been right in 2016 and wrong in 2015. The same extreme is a floor or a warning depending on what comes next. Only the archive tells them apart.

Continue reading: The floor of 2016 — the structure turned before mood · Who bought in the panic · The dollar as a regime thermometer →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket) · Flow (risk appetite) · Mood · Dollar