Radar Perene / Articles / episode

The commodity that rose and fell in the same month — Apr 2010

Episode

The extreme

There was something uncomfortable about April's raw material: it weakened and strengthened at the same time, and both readings were honest. Against the index, the commodity gave back the premium it had carried for months. Measured in reais, it rose by nearly the same proportion. The difference between the two statements had a name — the exchange rate — and anyone watching only the reais version would have sworn that the appetite for raw materials had grown. It had not. The exchange rate was the ventriloquist; the commodity only moved its lips. In numbers: Commodities/IBOV fell from 0.82 to 0.28 (Δ −0.53), while the reais version rose from −0.95 to −0.44 (Δ +0.51), with the dollar well-behaved at R$ 1.7566 and financials coming back in (Financials/IBOV, Δ +0.61). All of this under a regime still pinned at risk_on_amplo (78.7).

What happened next

April's reading kept confirming itself. In July, the commodity tracked the structure's weak point — Commodities/IBOV barely moved (from −1.69 to −1.35), and appetite returned through the cyclical end, stretched to a z of 3.39, not through the raw material. In October came the resolution that proved the reading right: with the real at the strongest point of the series (R$ 1.6835), the Commodities (R$)/IBOV ratio jumped from 1.23 to 2.45 and became the most stretched item in the ranking. The commodity was "leading" — but it was the currency speaking for it. In April 2011, more of the same: a quiet lead, sustained by a slight advance in reais (Δ +0.26).

What did not happen

The commodity did not reclaim the stage on its own merit. Appetite did return, yes, but through cyclicals and banks — the raw material stayed out of the party for months. What looked like a triumphant comeback in October was the exchange rate, not hunger for iron ore. And the ceiling did not give way: the entire rotation happened without the index losing its appetite tone.

The honest verdict

April's reading — "the commodity's gain in reais is the exchange rate, not demand" — held for more than a year. But it was a reading of context, not a settled fact: the arithmetic of the z-scores fit, it did not prove. And it did not say in which month the currency would start speaking louder again. Knowing how to separate the commodity from the real kept one from mistaking a strong currency for a hungry market. It did not spare the wait to find out when the hunger would come back.

Continue reading: The party that changed its guests · The commodity surge that was the exchange rate · Commodities in reais →

The Radar reads these regimes every day. See today's reading →

Characters: Commodities · Dollar