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The trail the currency left — September 2011

Episode

The extreme

There was a contradiction in the close, and it demanded investigation. The real lost nearly a tenth of its value over the month — and yet the premium that commodities priced in reais carried over the stock market dissolved. A weaker currency should have pushed that ratio up; it fell instead. The only compatible reading is that the international price of commodities gave way hard enough to swallow the currency gain. The currency left a trail; the damage came from abroad. In numbers: the Commodities (BRL)/IBOV ratio retreated from 2.67 to 1.12 of deviation — a 1.55σ drop, the largest move in the domestic structure —, with the dollar jumping from R$ 1.597 to R$ 1.75 and the Perene Risk Index falling from 69.2 to 50.7, back to neutral ground.

What happened next

The fissure that September opened only widened. In December 2011, the house's two gauges were screaming in opposite directions: the Perene Risk still in neutral territory, the intermarket structure sunk, and capital running for shelter — Utilities/IBOV at 2.24 of deviation. In March 2012, the trench was dug in broad daylight: Utilities/IBOV hit 3.21σ and the intermarket fell to 14.08, the strongest risk_off of the period. Only in September 2012, a year later, did the truce arrive, with the intermarket back to neutral at 48.2.

What did not happen

The dissolution of the premium did not announce an internal crisis. The Brazilian regime stayed in assumed risk the entire stretch, and the Selic kept being cut — from 12.0% to 7.5% a year over twelve months. Nor was it a uniform collapse of raw materials: measured in dollars, commodities actually gained 0.45 of deviation over the month. The scare was imported, not domestic.

The honest verdict

The reading correctly identified the squeeze coming from abroad — but the internal fundamentals never broke. The commodities number was the visible symptom; the real story was the disagreement between the two gauges, which took a year to reconcile. Reading the −1.55σ as a domestic alarm would have meant chasing the wrong trail.

Continue reading: The imported downgrade of August 2011 · Commodities in reais · The dollar as a regime gauge →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket) · Flow (risk appetite) · Mood · Dollar · Commodities