Was March 2020 the bottom?

Derivative

The question

In hindsight, it is tempting to call March 2020 the bottom of the pandemic. But "bottom" is a word that only exists afterward. What the archive registered, in real time, was more ambiguous.

What the archive shows

It depends which thermometer you look at. For flow, yes: risk appetite touched its lowest point in March and retraced almost the entire path by June. For mood, no: Ânima stayed in deep pessimism for eight more months, turning only in November. And for the exchange rate, there never was a bottom — the dollar flagged as an anomaly in March did not come back, and would still climb in the years that followed.

What didn't happen

There was no single "bottom." Anyone expecting a yes or a no was asking the wrong question. The March extreme was the bottom of one axis — appetite —, not of the others. Treating it as the bottom of everything would be rewriting, with hindsight, a story that at the time moved at three speeds.

Honest verdict

March 2020 was the bottom of risk appetite — not of mood, nor of the exchange rate. "Bottom" is rarely a month; it is usually one axis at a time.

Continue the story: What happened after fear priced everything · The dollar never came back · How long it takes for mood to catch up to flow →

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Characters: Flow (risk appetite) · Mood · Dollar