When the three clocks aligned (November 2020)

Derivative

The extreme

For almost the entire pandemic year, the Radar's three thermometers disagreed: risk appetite was recovering, mood stayed on the floor, the intermarket structure went its own way. In November 2020, for the first time in months, the three stopped disagreeing and pointed together toward the risk side. In numbers, mood made the largest jump in the series (from 28.6 to 64.3), appetite went straight from full aversion into long territory, and the structure crossed into strong risk-on.

What happened next

The synchronization did not last as harmony. Appetite held firm — in March 2021 still in the upper third of the scale —, but mood, newly arrived at optimism, did not anchor and swung back to neutral. The structure was the first to hesitate. November's rare agreement was an instant, not a new regime.

What didn't happen

The convergence of the three clocks did not usher in calm. Anyone reading the alignment as "now everyone agrees and it will stay this way" would have been mistaken: months later they diverged again, as is the rule of the archive.

Honest verdict

When the three thermometers strike the same hour, it is worth recording — because it is rare, not because it lasts. In the Radar, the information lives more in the disagreement among them than in the moment they agree.

Continue the story: What happened after fear priced everything · How long it takes for mood to catch up to flow · What intermarket reading is →

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Characters: Mood · Flow (risk appetite) · Structure (intermarket)