Radar Perene / concept
Intermarket BR
Intermarket BR is the reading of cross-market leadership in Brazil, on a comparable scale. It is not a lens — it is the parallel layer that informs all of them, on the principle that capital rotates into position before it becomes a headline.
What it is
A set of Brazilian wealth-sector ratios read as historical percentiles on a normalized scale: finance ÷ IBOV, utilities ÷ IBOV, commodities ÷ IBOV, REITs ÷ IBOV, cyclical ÷ defensive, long ÷ short inflation-linked bonds (flight to duration = risk aversion), and the proprietary commodity basket in reais (reflation × FX). Each ratio returns a directional signal; the combination generates the Intermarket axis of the Brazil Regime. (Ratios whose Brazilian history did not prove consistent — such as coffee÷gold and VALE÷gold — stay informational only, with no weight: we test rigorously and keep weight only on what the Brazilian series supports.)
Intermarket × Perene Risk Index
Complementary lenses. The Perene Risk Index is sentiment — aggregate risk appetite, tracking any asset. Intermarket is cross-market leadership — which blocks (finance, utilities, commodities, duration) are ahead or behind. Sentiment answers "which way the environment leans"; intermarket, "who is leading".
Why it exists
Because capital positions itself in sectoral rotation before turning into headline. When finance starts ceding against IBOV, or when utilities lead, or when REITs surpass IBOV, there is a reading there — a reading the Radar formalizes and quantifies before any narrative emerges. The product's thesis sentence comes from this fact: capital tends to position before the headline.
How to read it
Each ratio is read by z-score and historical percentile in the modern-regime window. A rising ratio at an elevated percentile indicates leadership of that block; a falling ratio indicates loss. The weight of each ratio inside the aggregate is proprietary and declared inside the technical architecture.
| Ratio | Typical risk-off signal | Typical risk-on signal |
|---|---|---|
| Finance / IBOV | Ratio falling | Ratio rising |
| Utilities / IBOV | Ratio rising | Ratio falling |
| Commodities / IBOV | Ratio falling | Ratio rising |
| REITs / IBOV | Ratio rising | Ratio falling |
| Cyclical / Defensive | Ratio falling | Ratio rising |
| Long / short NTN-B | Ratio rising (flight to duration) | Ratio falling |
| Commodity basket (R$) | Ratio falling (washout) | Ratio rising (reflation) |
What it does not mean
It is not stock picking. A rising ratio does not say "buy". A ratio is the aggregate reading of sectoral flow, not an operational recommendation.
It is not a forecast. The ratio reads the present; what follows depends on the global environment, the regulatory layer, foreign flow, market mood — variables the Radar combines but does not crystallize into points.
Limits
The internal composition of each basket is market-cap weighted to avoid distortion from quarterly official weighting. Survivor bias and look-ahead in baskets with historical constituents are declared where applicable. When components materially change, calibration is redone.
Example
Intermarket BR: moderately defensive reading. REITs/IBOV at the 78th percentile (leading the defensive block); finance/IBOV at the 22nd (losing). VALE/Gold at the 35th — commodities under pressure. In historically similar windows, institutional capital preceded regulatory by 20–45 days.
Related concepts: Brazil Regime · Risk-on / Risk-off · Ânima Index · see the full method