Radar Perene / concept
Intermarket BR
What it is
Intermarket BR is the reading of who is leading the Brazilian market. It is not one of the lenses — it is the layer that informs all of them, from one simple observation: knowing where capital sits says more than knowing what the market feels.
Picture the Brazilian market as a house with several rooms: banks, energy, commodities, real-estate funds. The money does not sit still — it moves between rooms. When it quietly moves into the defensive rooms (energy, REITs, long bonds), the panel records the move — who leads, who confirms. What followed each such move, the archive shows case by case.
How to read it
The rule fits in one sentence. When the defensive blocks gain ground, the market is crouching. When cyclicals, banks and commodities lead again, risk appetite is back.
Underneath, we compare each sector with the index — who is outperforming and who is lagging the IBOV — and we read each comparison against its own history, to tell whether what we see today is an extreme or just business as usual.
What we tested and dropped
Not every comparison earns a weight. We have measured coffee against gold, Vale against gold — elegant ideas the Brazilian record did not support. They stay in view, with no weight: weights are a declared editorial choice, revised when the evidence changes — in the Brazilian record, the one individually robust relationship is the utilities ratio. It is the kind of discipline that prefers one comparison fewer to one pretty comparison too many.
What it does not mean
It is not a recommendation. A leading sector does not say "buy" — it is a reading of flow, not trading advice.
And it is not a forecast. The reading describes the present; what comes next depends on the world outside, on market mood and on foreign flow. We work with what has tended to follow in similar situations, with the margin of error in plain view — never as a point fixed in the future. When a sector's makeup genuinely changes, we redo the math, and we never mix today's baskets with companies that only joined later.
Related concepts: Brazil Regime · Risk-on / Risk-off · Ânima Index · see the full method
Frequently asked questions
What is Intermarket BR? The reading of who is leading the Brazilian market. Like money moving between rooms in a house: the panel records who leads and who confirms, on a comparable scale — and what followed each configuration, the archive shows case by case.
How is it different from the Risk Index? Sentiment answers "which way the environment leans"; intermarket answers "who is leading". They are complementary: one measures risk appetite, the other shows where the money is moving.
How do I tell if the market is defensive or optimistic? Defensive blocks ahead (energy, REITs, long bonds) = the market crouching. Cyclicals, banks and commodities ahead = risk appetite returning. It is a read on direction, not a buy signal.
Does Intermarket tell me what to buy? No. A leading sector does not say "buy", and the reading does not forecast price. It describes the present and what tended to follow in similar cases, with the margin of error in view — never a fixed point.