Radar Perene / concept
Perene Risk Index
The Perene Risk Index is the reading of risk appetite in the Brazilian market — how much capital is leaning toward risk or protection (what the international jargon calls risk-on / risk-off) — on a single 0–100 scale.
The thermometer of the room
Petrobras falling on a calm day is Petrobras's problem. Petrobras falling in the middle of a panic is the whole room rushing for the door at once. The same price move means opposite things depending on the mood of the room — and that mood is what the index measures.
Think of it as a thermometer: 0 is everyone running for the exit, 100 is everyone with appetite. It doesn't tell you whether the boat is sinking; it tells you whether the tide is coming in or going out.
Underneath, the number sums up three readings of the market itself: how many Brazilian stocks are sustaining a trend, whether money is leaning toward what's riskier or what's more defensive, and how expensive or cheap credit is — each read against its own recent history. It sits stacked under the price of any asset, next to the Ânima Index — to separate what belongs to the company from what belongs to the environment. A drop with the whole room in panic is the environment; a drop with the room calm is something in the company itself.
Updated July 2026: the reading now also includes the market's credit conditions.
Turning-point signals
When fear reaches an extreme and starts to ease, the Radar marks a dated turning-point signal on the chart. It's not a recommendation: it marks the same pattern that, in the past, tended to precede recoveries — and each mark carries the actual outcome, what the Ibovespa did in the following months.
Two examples, confronted with reality:
- January 2016 — the index nailed the bottom ahead of a roughly +70% rise that year.
- March 2020, COVID — extreme fear preceded a +29.6% rise in the Ibovespa over six months.
History is not rewritten: every past reading stays frozen and is confronted with what actually happened — including the cases where the signal did not work.
Sentiment, not leadership
The Perene Risk Index measures sentiment — which way the environment leans, for any asset. It's a different lens from BR Intermarket, which shows which sectors are leading or lagging (financials, utilities, commodities, REITs, long-dated bonds). One answers "which way the room is leaning"; the other, "who's out in front".
What it does not mean
Risk-on isn't "good" and risk-off isn't "bad" — they're just states, two different climates. And the index is not a decision, nor a buy or sell recommendation: the turning-point signal describes a pattern that already happened, with the outcome in plain sight, never a price forecast. It's a daily reading, and turns can take days or weeks to confirm. The decision stays human.
Related concepts: Ânima Index · Global Regime · Brazil Regime · see the full method
Frequently asked questions
What is the Perene Risk Index? The 0–100 reading of risk appetite in the Brazilian market: how much capital is seeking risk or protection (what the jargon calls risk-on / risk-off). It works like a thermometer of the room's mood, stacked under the price of any asset.
Why does it exist? Because the same price move says opposite things depending on the environment. A stock falling on a calm day is the company's problem; falling in a general panic, it's the whole room running together. The index tells the two apart.
What does it not mean? It doesn't mean risk-on is good and risk-off is bad — they're just states. And it's not a buy or sell recommendation, nor a price forecast: it describes a historical pattern, with the outcome in plain sight. The decision stays human.
What are its limits? The reading is daily and turns can take days to weeks to confirm. It's descriptive of the historical distribution, never a forecast.