Radar Perene / concept
Global Regime
The Global Regime is the aggregate reading of the external environment in which the Brazilian market operates.
What it is
A daily synthesis of the external macro environment, read on the same categorical scale as the Brazil Regime (defensive, neutral, pro-risk) and the same 0–100 auxiliary scale. It combines classical global-risk signals — volatility, dollar strength, US long rates, gold, defensive FX pairs. It is external context, not Brazil; it only makes sense crossed with the other axes.
Why it exists
Because capital operating in Brazil is, mostly, sensitive to the global environment. A pro-risk global regime can rescue the IBOV from a bad domestic regulatory regime — and a defensive global regime can drag IBOV down even with domestic in order. Reading one side is half-reading.
How to read it
Same scale as the Brazil Regime. The crossing is what matters:
| Brazil × Global | Typical reading |
|---|---|
| BR defensive × Global pro-risk | Domestic capital pricing before the headline. |
| BR pro-risk × Global defensive | Idiosyncratic resilience (commodity tailwind, specific external flow). |
| BR defensive × Global defensive | Combined stress — synchronized risk-off regime. |
| BR pro-risk × Global pro-risk | Broad beta — appetite confirmed at two scales. |
What it does not mean
It is not the S&P 500. It is not gold. It is not the dollar in isolation. It is a synthesis — and a synthesis is not a quote. Watching only the Global Regime and ignoring the Brazil Regime is the opposite of what the Radar was built to do.
Limits
External signals are read in their own window; transmission to Brazil has variable lag (weeks to months). The Radar identifies lags in historically similar windows (see Historical Analogs), never nailing a point.
Example
Global Regime: 62.4 — moderately pro-risk. Crossed with Brazil Regime at 38.1 (moderately defensive): material divergence. In historically similar windows, divergences of this magnitude preceded BR recovery within 30–60 days in most observed cases — contextual reading, not forecast.
Related concepts: Brazil Regime · Risk-on / Risk-off · see the full method