Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,643 · October 4, 2018 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 95.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state95/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite72/100Today → 0
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day77,891 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months74,553 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2013
    Ibovespa 51,245 → 54,273 pts (+6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  2. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  3. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  4. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  5. December 31, 2001Perene 94
  6. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 82,953 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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