Brazil market regime — 2013-11-30

In 6 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 17% of the time after 6 months (median -10.9%, central range -11.7% to -9.4%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 17% · median -8.8% · central range -15.4%…-4% (n=6)
• 6M: higher 17% · median -10.9% · central range -11.7%…-9.4% (n=6)
• 12M: higher 0% · median -13.3% · central range -17%…-12.4% (n=5)

6 independent episodes · e.g. 2012-02, 2012-09, 2011-05, 2012-06, 2010-11 · 2-índices (Risco/Regime), z-dist<=0,85 — Ânima indisponível (<2016)