Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 182 · November 30, 2013 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index advanced to 96.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoNovember 30, 2008
    Ibovespa that day34,741 pts
    what happened in 6 months53,630 pts (+54%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2008 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 36 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +1.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 17% · median -8.8%
  • 6M: higher 17% · median -10.9%
  • 12M: higher 0% · median -13.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2012-02, 2012-09, 2011-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2021Perene 94 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  3. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  5. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  6. December 31, 2002Perene 94
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -10.9% over six months, with 17% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 52,482 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 182 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2013-11-29all editions · Atlas2013-12-03 · next edition →