Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of December 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The day's reading came in at 96.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state96/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite66/100Today ▲ +16
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJune 30, 2016
    Ibovespa that day51,527 pts
    what happened in 6 months60,227 pts (+17%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2016 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 48 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 50% · median +1.1%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +7.7%
  • 12M: higher 80% · median +22.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2020-01, 2018-11, 2019-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  2. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  3. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  5. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  6. December 31, 2001Perene 94
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.7% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 119,306 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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