Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 3,009 · February 29, 2012 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to an appetite extreme. The Perene Index marked 95 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state97/100
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2011
    Ibovespa that day64,620 pts
    the archive suggested-4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months56,875 pts (-12%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2011 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2006
    Ibovespa 45,383 → 55,932 pts (+23% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 27 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 52% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2020Perene 96 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2001Perene 98
  3. May 31, 2011Perene 99 · risk-on
  4. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  5. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  6. May 31, 2009Perene 99
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 65,812 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,009 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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