Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,260 · April 9, 2021 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The index reads 95 — stretched risk-on.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state95/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite53/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,056 pts
    the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,558 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2016
    Ibovespa 51,527 → 60,227 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 47 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  2. November 30, 2002Perene 95
  3. April 30, 2003Perene 95
  4. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  5. December 31, 2001Perene 94
  6. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 117,670 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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