Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,069 · June 30, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 100. The reading stays in stretched risk-on. Among sectors, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite34/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day97,394 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months100,098 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2014
    Ibovespa 48,512 → 52,344 pts (+8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +8.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 95,056 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,069 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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