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Character: Commodities
◦ Pieces dated up to 15 Jul 2026 were written under index methodology v1; the current series is v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.
In Brazil, a commodity is rarely just a commodity — it is the exchange rate in disguise. This is the study of when raw materials led the market, and how often the strength that looked like growth appetite was, underneath, a weak real repricing exporters. The episodes below trace the Commodities(BRL)/IBOV ratio at its extremes: the reign, the end of the reign, and every harvest decided by the currency, not the world.
Much of the commodity complex is quoted in dollars.
Read the full entry: Commodities in real: when the currency moves the ratio →
Where Commodities appears
- MarqueeThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before rates
- MarqueeThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbed
- MarqueeSeptember 2021: Brazilian mood collapsed from 43.8 to 9.4 — and capital ran for cover at home
- Comparison2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regime
- DerivativeThe alarm that didn't cross the border: when the shock is external and the regime stays standing
- DerivativeThe currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024
- DerivativeWhen every haven fills up: the expensive shelter of November 2015
- episodioThe market that sold the banks to buy the barrel — February 2021
- episodioThe commodity that only pays in reais — when the gain was the currency (May 2013)
- episodioThe commodity that rose and fell in the same month — Apr 2010
- comparacaoThe commodity climbed to the top. No one bought it.
- episodioThe party that changed its guests — the silent collapse of commodities in June 2010
- episodioThe lead the currency lent to commodities — October 2010
- episodioThe trail the currency left — September 2011
- episodioThe only ratio that was improving
- comparacaoCommodities at the top. The ore, standing still.
- episodioBuying iron ore was fleeing the economy, not betting on it
- comparacaoTwo nearly identical peaks — and why neither was strength
- episodioThe barrel gave way. Wholesale didn't.
- episodioThe baton that returned to commodities — September 2017
- comparacaoThe exchange rate changes the price of everything. Not the question.
- episodioThe commodity shock that came through the currency — March 2022
- episodioThe safe dressed as a commodity — July 2015
- episodioThe awakening that left commodities behind
- episodioThe imported downgrade of August 2011 — the strength that was only the currency
- episodioThe extreme that changed address — the commodities of 2011
- episodioThe extreme that unwound in a week
- episodioThe end of the commodities' reign — the crown fell in a single month, and the throne never came back
- comparacaoThe same sector bled twice. The mood noticed neither.
- episodioThe commodity premium the dollar was paying
- episodioThe commodity jump that was the currency — April 2016
- episodioWhen the currency dictates the harvest: the rare leap the exchange rate wrote
- comparacaoA sector capitulates. Or is it the ruler that trembles.
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