Radar Perene / Archive / character
Character: Dollar
◦ Pieces dated up to 15 Jul 2026 were written under index methodology v1; the current series is v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.
In Brazil, the dollar is not just a price — it is a regime. When the exchange rate moves in anomaly, it reprices the whole market, disguises the strength of commodities, and dictates the mood of credit. This is the study of the dollar as an axis: the archive's statistical anomalies (at R$ 4.88, at R$ 6.09), the currency that commanded the harvest, and the times when money — not the economy — wrote the month.
In the Radar, the dollar is not just a price — it is one of the most sensitive gauges of the regime.
Read the full entry: The dollar as regime gauge →
Where Dollar appears
- MarqueeWhat happened after fear priced everything
- MarqueeThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbed
- Comparison2011 vs 2013: two imported shocks, two different absorptions
- Comparison2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regime
- DerivativeThe alarm that didn't cross the border: when the shock is external and the regime stays standing
- DerivativeThe currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024
- DerivativeThe dollar never came back: when an extreme redefines the floor
- comparacaoThe rise made headlines. The return did not.
- episodioThe aversion with no foreign accent
- episodioThe commodity that only pays in reais — when the gain was the currency (May 2013)
- episodioThe commodity that rose and fell in the same month — Apr 2010
- comparacaoThe commodity climbed to the top. No one bought it.
- episodioThe lead the currency lent to commodities — October 2010
- episodioThe trail the currency left — September 2011
- episodioThe only voice afraid — the dollar above R$ 4,10 in September 2018
- comparacaoCommodities at the top. The ore, standing still.
- aniversarioFive years since the COVID crash: the year price came back before confidence
- episodioBuying iron ore was fleeing the economy, not betting on it
- comparacaoTwo winters, the same mismatch — never the same clocks
- comparacaoTwo nearly identical peaks — and why neither was strength
- episodioThe shelter with a currency accent — June 2012
- episodioThe shelter that didn't pick a port
- comparacaoThe exchange rate wrote both months. Fear, only one.
- comparacaoThe exchange rate changes the price of everything. Not the question.
- episodioThe commodity shock that came through the currency — March 2022
- episodioThe safe dressed as a commodity — July 2015
- notaThe dollar at R$4.88 and the ruler that measures distance, not direction
- notaThe dollar at R$ 6,097 and what an anomaly means
- episodioThe imported downgrade of August 2011 — the strength that was only the currency
- comparacaoThe world was buying the Brazil the locals were selling
- episodioThe commodity premium the dollar was paying
- episodioThe commodity jump that was the currency — April 2016
- episodioWhen the currency dictates the harvest: the rare leap the exchange rate wrote
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