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Character: Rates (Selic)

◦ Pieces dated up to 15 Jul 2026 were written under index methodology v1; the current series is v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The price of money is the backdrop to everything — and, in some months, it takes the lead. This is the study of the Selic as a regime force: the first cut that calls risk back, the tightening that makes fear expensive, the real rate that pays to wait, the floor and the ceiling. When rates lead, they rearrange the whole house.

The Selic is Brazil's benchmark interest rate — and, in the Radar's archive, it works as the slow backdrop against which the regimes take shape.

Read the full entry: Rates (the Selic) in the Radar: the backdrop of the regimes →

Where Rates (Selic) appears

• MarqueeThe house in the dark: the structure's floor at the end of 2022 preceded a year of discord
• MarqueeThe fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structure
• MarqueeTwo clocks telling different times: December 2024
• MarqueeThe 2016 bottom: structure turned before mood — and long before rates
• MarqueeThe 2013 taper tantrum: the imported shock the Brazilian regime absorbed
• MarqueeThe three alarms of August 2015 — and the bottom that wasn't the bottom
• MarqueeSeptember 2021: Brazilian mood collapsed from 43.8 to 9.4 — and capital ran for cover at home
• Comparison2013 vs 2024: when the currency leads — and what that does (or doesn't) to the regime
• Comparison2022 vs 2015: two slow domestic contractions
• ComparisonCOVID × August 2015: the same diagnosis, opposite anatomies
• ComparisonCrisis of 2015 × the 2016 bottom: what separates panic from inflection
• ComparisonThe 2016 bottom × March 2020: two recompositions, two clocks
• DerivativeStructure leads mood: what 2016 taught about who arrives first
• DerivativeThe Selic at 15% and the fading euphoria
• DerivativeThe Selic pinned at 14.25%: the rate that never came to the rescue
• DerivativeThe first rate cut: the Selic confirmed what the market had already read
• DerivativeReal rates in anomaly: the rare premium of late 2024
• DerivativeWhen the shock only raises the price of money: the taper that became Selic, not crisis
• comparacaoInflation was the anomaly. Months later, so was deflation.
• episodioFixed income in disguise loses its charm — Aug. 2013, the Selic at 9%
• notaThe Selic at 3.75% at the peak of fear — when the lowest rate brings no relief
• episodioThe Selic came down a step. The house didn't feel it.
• episodioThe week brick paid the index
• episodioThe shelter the money wouldn't let go of — September 2023
• episodioThe silent adversary — August 2025, when fixed income won without attacking
• episodioThe alarm that came from the price of money, not from fear — Jan 2011
• comparacaoThe tightening came with euphoria. The relief, in silence.
• episodioWholesale shouted before retail
• comparacaoThe carry stopped competing. It began to pull.
• comparacaoMoney has never been so expensive. The mood, never so high.
• episodioThe stimulus that didn't thrill — the rate at its floor and the month that refused the drama (Sep/2012)
• episodioFalling rates call real estate back — and dismiss it months later
• episodioRates at the floor, capital in the cellar — October 2019
• episodioRates at the floor, cyclicals at the bottom — January 2013
• episodioThe rate at the ceiling, and the money that chose to wait
• comparacaoRates rose to the ceiling. The mood, higher still.
• episodioMid-2019 — when falling rates turned their back on brick
• episodioThe middle of 2021 — the step that looked like a plateau
• episodioThe month the market chose income over cycle
• comparacaoThe same rate presided over the panic and the appetite
• episodioThe extreme number that wasn't news
• episodioThe first tightening of 2021 — appetite at 94 and conviction stuck at 50
• comparacaoThe brick didn't lose. It was swallowed.
• comparacaoSelic at 14.25% and 3.75%: the rate that did not rule the mood

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