The 2018 truckers' strike: money came back before faith — and before the headline

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The extreme

In May 2018, the truckers' strike brought the country to a halt, on top of emerging-market stress and electoral uncertainty. The Radar recorded both risk maps pulling back together, and hard: the intermarket structure returned to neutral, domestic appetite declared itself in risk-off, and investor mood sank into deep pessimism. In numbers, the Perene Risk Index fell from 51 to 15 and the Ânima Index from 28 to 11 — almost the floor of the scale.

What happened next

The recovery was led by capital, not by confidence. By June 2018, risk appetite jumped back to the top (94) while mood barely stirred, still pinned to the floor (13) — money arrived before faith. Only in September did mood finally cross into positive territory (from 11 to 55). And in December, with the election behind it, appetite held at the top of the scale while the intermarket structure collapsed again — a fresh disagreement opening the following year.

What didn't happen

The shock of the strike did not leave a lasting collapse. Anyone reading May's panic as the start of a long decline would have missed the re-entry of capital, which came within a month — well before the headlines (the strike, then the election) suggested any relief. Sentiment lagged the money by four months.

Honest verdict

The strike was a shock to mood more than to flow. Capital repositioned ahead of confidence and ahead of the narrative — money arrives before faith, and sometimes before the headline.

Continue the story: Capital before confidence · The two clocks after the 2018 election (Dec 2018) · What the Perene Risk Index is →

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Characters: Mood · Flow (risk appetite) · Structure (intermarket)