The currency that took command: when the dollar became the protagonist of 2024

Derivative

The extreme

At the end of 2024, the dollar stopped being a backdrop and started commanding the equity market from within. In November it closed at R$ 5.81, and it was the currency — not the price of iron ore — that flung commodities priced in real to the absolute top of the grid: the Commodities (R$)/IBOV ratio jumped from z +1.09 to +3.07, the sharpest deviation in the entire intermarket reading. The same commodities measured in dollars barely moved (z −0.78). The market was not buying raw material; it was buying currency protection wrapped in stocks that earn abroad.

What happened next

In December the dollar pushed further and closed in anomaly, at R$ 6.097 — z of 3.46 in the series — and the extreme in commodities-in-real held at the top (z 3.03), sustained entirely by the currency. But command began to change hands when the exchange rate gave way. In January 2025, with the dollar at R$ 6.02, the commodities lead pulled back to z +1.91 and the financial sector took over the leading role. In March, a firmer real at R$ 5.75 drained the bet for good: Commodities (R$)/IBOV fell to z +0.76. What the currency had lifted, the currency dismantled.

What didn't happen

The leap in commodities-in-real was never optimism about Brazil, and it did not survive the reversal of the currency. Anyone reading the z +3.07 as strength in the export sector would have confused symptom with victory: mood remained pinned at the floor (Ânima at 14.0) and the regime stayed defensive. And the extreme concentration did not last — it took only the real recovering ground for the position to lose its reason to exist. It was fear dressed up as currency protection, not conviction.

Honest verdict

At the end of 2024, the currency took command of the internal structure without the economy changing: the dollar did the work the commodity price did not, and fiscal distrust dictated where capital fled. When the currency commands, what rises is not what is strong — it is what requires no faith in the country.

Continue the story: Two clocks telling different times (Dec 2024) · The dollar never came back · What commodities in real are →

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Characters: Dollar · Commodities · Structure (intermarket)