Two clocks telling different times: December 2024

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The extreme

December 2024 closed the year with the Radar's panel telling two incompatible stories. Inside the equity market, money rebuilt appetite all at once: the intermarket score, which had opened the month at 35.9, ended pinned at 100.0 — strong risk-on. But the part that measures money and the currency was shouting the opposite. The dollar closed in anomaly, at R$ 6.097, and the 5- and 10-year market real rates marked deviations near 3.8 standard deviations. The Selic had risen to 12.25% a year. Two clocks, different times.

What happened next

The house, not the street, drove what came next. In January 2025 mood jumped from 41.6 to 66.5 and risk appetite leapt to 69.0 — the financial sector led the recovery, rewarded by a Selic already at 13.25%. In March, the euphoria reached its peak: mood at 77.5, appetite at 73.7, with the Selic at the ceiling of 14.25%. But the intermarket structure refused to confirm the party, stuck in moderate risk-off. In July the bill arrived: mood collapsed from 92.3 to 39.0, and the euphoria descended to meet the defense the structure had never abandoned. The Selic ended at 15.0%.

What didn't happen

The easy narrative — "intermarket printed 100, so the cycle turned" — does not survive the archive. December's turn was one of relative pricing, not of regime: the domestic score stayed defensive (26.5) the whole time, and the euphoria that formed in 2025 was never validated by the structure. Nor did the street's tension ease quickly: the dollar still closed January at R$ 6.02, and real rates remained at an elevated deviation. July's reconciliation came through the fall in mood, not through an improving economy.

Honest verdict

In December 2024, the house read early what the street was still pricing as expensive. Anyone taking intermarket's 100 for a cycle turn would have confused rotation with regime: the 2025 euphoria was real and fleeting, the Selic only rose, and the defense was right the whole way through. When two clocks disagree, it is usually the more stubborn one that tells the time.

Continue the story: Real rates in anomaly (2024) · The currency that took command (2024) · When the gauges disagree →

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Characters: Structure (intermarket) · Dollar · Rates (Selic) · Mood