The fever of 2025 — when euphoria descended to meet the structure

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The extreme

For four months, the Brazilian equity market lived a split: a market mood pinned at extreme optimism while the structure beneath it described a defensive market. In June 2025 the gap reached its peak — mood at 92.3, nearly invincible at the surface, atop an intermarket structure in strong risk-off. In July the fever broke. Market mood pulled back from 92.3 to 39.0, the largest contraction in sentiment in months, and risk appetite fell from 76.4 to 17.5. The reconciliation came from below: it was not the structure that rose, it was the euphoria that descended to meet it.

What happened next

The calm did not last. In August 2025 the euphoria returned as fast as it had retreated — mood jumped from 39.0 to 72.3, and brick-and-mortar sank (IFIX/IBOV from z −0.42 to −2.12) against the same silent adversary as always: the Selic at 15.0%. September repeated the extreme optimism (77.9), with money rotating into cyclicals. October normalized on both sides — mood at 59.0, appetite at 68.5, both coming off opposite extremes. Then December 2025 aligned everything downward: intermarket scraped the floor, at 8.87. And in May 2026 the choreography inverted — mood collapsed to 12.6, extreme pessimism, while the structure, underneath, was recovering: fear at the surface, calm at the foundation.

What didn't happen

The simple narrative — "euphoria gave way, and the market normalized" — does not survive the archive. Mood did not deflate for good: it visited extreme optimism again in August, September, November and January 2026, refusing to deflate for more than a month at a time. And the structure never improved to keep pace with the fever; when the two axes finally agreed, in December, it was downward, not upward. July did not mark the end of the disagreement — only the first of many.

Honest verdict

July 2025 was the fall of an anomaly, not the start of a relief. Anyone reading the contraction as a cure would have been wrong: the fever returned month after month, and the structural illness persisted under a 15% rate. When the fever breaks, it is the thermometer that rests — not necessarily the patient.

Continue the story: When the three axes agreed on defense (Jul 2025) · The Selic at 15% and the fading euphoria · What the Ânima Index is →

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Characters: Mood · Flow (risk appetite) · Structure (intermarket) · Rates (Selic) · Dollar