Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition of January 31, 2010 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 2. The scene holds at a defensive extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state15/100
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoApril 30, 2005
    Ibovespa that day24,705 pts
    what happened in 6 months29,318 pts (+19%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2005 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 24 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  2. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  3. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  4. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
  5. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2010Perene 15
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 65,402 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

all editions · Atlas