Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of May 31, 2018 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Sentiment did not shift: it stays depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state15/100Today ▲ +13
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite11/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day62,711 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months72,264 pts (+15%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2012
    Ibovespa 57,475 → 51,317 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2010Perene 15
  2. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  4. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  5. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2010Perene 15
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 76,754 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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