Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 4,680 · November 30, 2018 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. The day closes at 95, the top of the scale.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today → 0
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day77,891 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months74,553 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2013
    Ibovespa 51,245 → 54,273 pts (+6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +8.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  5. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
  6. January 31, 2012Perene 100 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 89,504 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 4,680 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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