Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,503 · March 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The market ended with a Perene Index of 100. At the ends of the index, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (100) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day116,634 pts
    the archive suggested-2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months110,979 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2016
    Ibovespa 56,756 → 64,836 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  2. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  5. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
  6. January 31, 2012Perene 100 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 119,999 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,503 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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