Brazil market regime

Edition no. 2,020 · February 29, 2008 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now stretched risk-on. Today, the Perene Index closed at 87.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoNovember 30, 2006
Ibovespa that day41,932 pts
what happened in 6 months52,049 pts (+24%)
Reread the edition of November 30, 2006 →
○Five years agoMarch 2003
Ibovespa 11,274 → 16,011 pts (+42% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 18 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 63,489 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

all editions · Observatory