Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,609 · August 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index settled at 87 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100Today ▾ -12
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite64/100Today ▾ -11
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (87) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day126,216 pts
    what happened in 6 months100,775 pts (-20%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2017
    Ibovespa 70,835 → 86,371 pts (+22% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2006Perene 87
  2. July 31, 2009Perene 88
  3. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  4. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
  6. June 30, 2019Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 109,523 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,609 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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