Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 558 · June 30, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The Perene Index stopped at 97.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state88/100Today ▾ -12
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite62/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2018
    Ibovespa that day72,840 pts
    what happened in 6 months92,032 pts (+26%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2014
    Ibovespa 54,629 → 57,197 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  2. November 30, 2004Perene 88
  3. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  4. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2009Perene 88
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 100,967 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 558 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every risk-on stretch in the Atlas →

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