Brazil market regime

Edition of December 31, 2008 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 89. The scene holds at an appetite extreme. As for composition, utilities led.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state86/100

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoFebruary 29, 2008
Ibovespa that day63,489 pts
what happened in 6 months55,162 pts (-13%)
Reread the edition of February 29, 2008 →
○Five years agoNovember 2003
Ibovespa 20,521 → 19,819 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 19 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 37,550 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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