Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 5,836 · July 31, 2023 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood improved. The Perene Index stopped at 83.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state85/100Today ▾ -4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite84/100Today ▲ +15
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day109,523 pts
    what happened in 6 months104,700 pts (-4%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 57% · median +0.1%
  • 6M: higher 86% · median +3.7%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +20.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-06, 2017-01, 2022-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  2. March 31, 2009Perene 86
  3. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  5. December 31, 2008Perene 86
  6. November 30, 2003Perene 84
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.7% over six months, with 86% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 121,943 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,836 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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