Brazil market regime — 2021-03-31

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 40% of the time after 6 months (median -2.2%, central range -13.5% to 13.4%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 60% · median +5.2% · central range -23%…+10.4% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 40% · median -2.2% · central range -13.5%…+13.4% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 50% · median +1.1% · central range -2.9%…+8.9% (n=4)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2019-06, 2017-12, 2019-12, 2020-09, 2020-01 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios