Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,254 · March 31, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now the top of the scale. Today, the Perene Index closed at 90.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -6
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite50/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,056 pts
    the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,558 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2016
    Ibovespa 51,527 → 60,227 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +5.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +5.2%
  • 6M: higher 40% · median -2.2%
  • 12M: higher 50% · median +1.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-06, 2017-12, 2019-12 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  2. November 30, 2013Perene 94 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  5. May 31, 2003Perene 94
  6. December 31, 2002Perene 94
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -2.2% over six months, with 40% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,634 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,254 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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