Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 3,649 · September 30, 2014 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to defensive ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 20.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state14/100Today ▲ +14
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoSeptember 30, 2009
    Ibovespa that day61,518 pts
    what happened in 6 months71,417 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2009 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 33 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 48% of the time — median -0.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 86% · median +11.5%
  • 6M: higher 71% · median +8.2%
  • 12M: higher 80% · median +15.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-03, 2012-05, 2011-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2016Perene 14 · defensive
  2. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2010Perene 15
  4. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
  5. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  6. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8.2% over six months, with 71% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 54,116 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,649 · Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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