Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of July 31, 2016 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The day closes with the Perene Index at 92.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state91/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite76/100Today ▲ +20
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day48,054 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months52,764 pts (+10%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2015 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2011
    Ibovespa 64,620 → 56,875 pts (-12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 35 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2014Perene 92 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  5. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  6. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 57,308 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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