Brazil market regime
Edition no. 466 · May 10, 2023 · reconstructed essentials
The risk reading moved to a different level. The day closes at 100, stretched risk-on.
Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.
- ●A year agoMarch 31, 2022Ibovespa that day119,999 ptsthe archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. medianwhat happened in 6 months107,664 pts (-10%)Reread the edition of March 31, 2022 →
- ○Five years agoJune 2018Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
- ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →
In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →
Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Ibovespa: 107,448 pts
The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →
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