Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,798 · June 6, 2023 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Risk Index moved at the top of the scale, now at 100. The reading stays at the top of the scale.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood64/100Today ▲ +17
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day119,999 pts
    the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months107,664 pts (-10%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2018
    Ibovespa 72,840 → 92,032 pts (+26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 114,610 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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