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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,859 · August 31, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The index reads 0 — capitulation territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite58/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2022
    Ibovespa that day98,542 pts
    what happened in 6 months110,031 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2018
    Ibovespa 85,481 → 78,389 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. February 29, 2020Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 115,742 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,859 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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