Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of July 31, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop remains neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day94,603 pts
    the archive suggested+11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months117,670 pts (+24%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2016
    Ibovespa 58,367 → 64,775 pts (+11% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 51% of the time — median +0.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +11.5%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +14.6%
  • 12M: higher 33% · median -9.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-09, 2020-09, 2018-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. February 29, 2020Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +14.6% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 121,801 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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