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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,043 · May 31, 2024 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now capitulation territory. The Perene Index marked 0 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite28/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,742 pts
    the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,340 pts (+11%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2020
    Ibovespa 106,625 → 99,369 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +7.4%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +7.2%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +20.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2016-12, 2021-11, 2023-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. February 29, 2020Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.2% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 122,098 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,043 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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