Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of October 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The day's reading came in at 0.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite29/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 29, 2020
    Ibovespa that day106,625 pts
    the archive suggested+24% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months99,369 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of February 29, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2015
    Ibovespa 46,626 → 48,665 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 44 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 52% of the time — median +0.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +12.6%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +10.3%
  • 12M: higher 50% · median +3.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-10, 2019-05, 2018-04 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. February 29, 2020Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +10.3% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 93,952 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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